Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc was projected to secure a one-seat majority in Sunday’s parliamentary election, while the Sweden Democrats recorded a significant drop in support, according to preliminary results and exit polls.
The centre-left bloc, led by Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson, was projected to win 175 of the 349 seats in parliament, compared with 174 seats for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing governing bloc, according to Sweden’s election authority.
The projection was based on votes counted from 4,853 of the country’s 6,312 electoral districts.
Earlier exit polls had also put the four-party centre-left opposition ahead. Swedish public broadcaster SVT’s Valu exit poll, based on interviews with 13,709 voters outside polling stations, put the opposition bloc at 51.3 percent, compared with 46.8 percent for the governing bloc.
A rival exit poll by TV4 gave the centre-left opposition a slightly smaller lead, with 51.3 percent against 47 percent for the right-wing bloc.
However, the race remained extremely close as counting progressed. With about half of the votes counted, SVT reported the two blocs almost level, with the opposition on 49.3 percent and the governing bloc on 49.2 percent. The difference was around 20,000 votes.
The projected result would put Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson in a position to attempt to return to power. Andersson became Sweden’s first female prime minister in 2021.
But forming a government could prove complicated. Andersson would need to secure support from parties including the Left Party and the Centre Party, which have differing demands, or find support elsewhere in parliament.
The exit poll gave the Social Democrats 28.4 percent of the vote, while the Moderate Party received 18.1 percent. The Liberal Party, which had been polling below Sweden’s four percent parliamentary threshold before the election, was projected to receive 5.4 percent.
The Sweden Democrats (SD), which has supported Kristersson’s government from outside the coalition over the past four years, were projected to receive 17.2 percent. That was down from 20.5 percent in the 2022 election.
If confirmed, it would mark the first time the Sweden Democrats have lost support in a parliamentary election since entering parliament in 2010. The result would also affect the party’s plans to seek ministerial positions and direct control over key policy areas.
The Moderate Party’s 18.1 percent was around one percentage point lower than its 2022 result.
Several other parties increased their support compared with 2022, according to the exit poll. The Green Party received 7.4 percent, up 2.4 percentage points; the Centre Party 7.5 percent, up 0.8 percentage points; the Left Party 8 percent, up 1.3 percentage points; and the Christian Democrats 6.1 percent, up 0.8 percentage points.
The results also prompted early reactions from senior politicians. Green Party MEP Alice Bah Kuhnke said the Swedish people had sent a message and were “tired of Tidö”, referring to the agreement that has underpinned the current government’s cooperation with the Sweden Democrats.
Political science professor Tommy Möller of Stockholm University said the exit poll indicated a clear difference between the two government alternatives, according to Swedish news agency TT.
National security, gang crime, immigration and welfare spending were among the major issues during the election campaign.
The final result will be determined after all ballots have been counted and Sweden’s election authority completes the official process.
